The Nintendo Switch is already Nintendo’s fastest selling home console ever. If financial services company Credit Suisse’s latest analysis of Nintendo is to be believed, though, the Switch will also become its best-selling home console by 2022, far eclipsing the 102 million units sold over the Wii’s lifetime.
The Swiss-based firm Credit Suisse, who specialize in stock investment advice and financial analysis, recently predicted that the Nintendo Switch should sell 130 million units by the year 2022. This rescinds their original prediction at the system’s launch of 70 million units over that time due to the fact that they believe the system will now sell more like a handheld instead of a traditional home console, and thus peak later in its life cycle.
“As Nintendo’s Switch is a unique game platform for use as either a console or handheld, there was initially some uncertainty over whether its sales cycle would more closely resemble that of a console or handheld. Although the Switch is currently categorized as more of a console, we expect it to sell like a handheld,” explains Credit Suisse analyst Keiichi Yoneshima. “Many users are in fact using the Switch as a portable according to a Famitsu survey of users. We previously projected a sales peak at about three years after launch (i.e., in FY3/19) on the assumption of a console-like sales cycle. Now that the Switch looks more likely to sell like a handheld, we update our sales forecast to reflect a longer sales cycle. We now expect the Switch to achieve peak sales about five years after launch (i.e., around FY3/20–21) like a typical handheld game device. We also raise our peak-year sales forecast from 25mn to 31mn units.”
Also as part of this prediction, Credit Suisse lifted their analysis of Nintendo’s stock on the Japanese stock market from “neutral” to “outperform”, so if you’re big into Japanese stock, you might want to snatch up some Nintendo shares while you can. Of course, their stock has already risen 56% this year as is, due to the Switch’s successful launch that has seen 4.7 million units already sold.
This prediction, though, is only just that—a prediction—and these numbers are far from set in stone. It should also be said that it would be difficult for Nintendo to hit that 130 million mark if they never make sure there’s enough supply to meet the demand, as there are still issues in people finding the Switch. It’s interesting to see people’s faith in Nintendo returning, however, and this is just another example of that.