Red Dead Redemption 2 will undoubtably break some sales records, but one analyst claims the western adventure still won’t topple Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, or even Battlefield V.
Analyst firm Piper Jaffray recently published a report forecasting the sales of some of the biggest games coming in Q4 2018. The firm expects Activision’s newest Call of Duty installment, Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, to sell around 21.5 million units by the end of the year, 3.5 million more than last year’s Call of Duty: WWII.
The game that follows closest behind Black Ops 4 is Battlefield V, with an expected 16 million units sold by March 31st, 2019. Red Dead Redemption 2 doesn’t make the running until after Battlefield V, slated to see 15.5 million units sold in the fiscal year 2018. Even with three extra months, the firm doesn’t anticipate these two other games coming close to Black Ops 4.
Given the hype currently surrounding RDR2, it is surprising to see Black Ops 4—let alone Battlefield V—expected to see more in the games’ first few months. A fair amount of controversy has circulated around these two first-person shooters, namely regarding Black Ops 4‘s lack of a single-player campaign and Battlefield V‘s underwhelming gameplay reveal, while the buzz for RDR2 has seemed nothing but positive. What is more, the Red Dead Redemption games are more or less Western reinterpretations of the Grand Theft Auto series, which recently saw Grand Theft Auto V become the third best-selling game in history. That said, Piper Jaffray may not expect RDR2 to have the same mainstream appeal as GTA V, although the new game’s comparable multiplayer experience is anticipated to have a similarly significant impact.
It is important to acknowledge that these sales numbers are just predictions, which may differ analyst to analyst. The NPD Group, for example, expects Red Dead Redemption 2 to edge out Black Ops 4 in 2018. Even if Black Ops 4 does initially come out on top, it may not last long. The sales for Call of Duty games are known to drop off over shorter time frames, given the series’ yearly release schedule, while Rockstar games commonly sell for years and years. This suggests RDR2 will almost certainly surpass Black Ops 4 at some point in its lifetime.
These three games are launching in October in relatively close succession, with Black Ops 4 dropping October 12th, Battlefield V on October 19th, and Red Dead Redemption 2 coming October 26th. All three will launch on PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and PC, with the exception of RDR2 on PC, at least for now. This may be the best explanation for the expected sales differences, given the popularity of the two first-person shooter series on PC.
In other Red Dead Redemption 2 news, the game’s strategy guide was recently announced, with preorders now available.